Pricing your home is one of the most crucial decisions you’ll make when selling. In fact, it’s so critical that I often compare it to a high-stakes game of poker or roulette. Why? Because, just like in these games, your chances of success diminish significantly when you bet on risky odds.

When setting your home's price, there are three key factors we can control: exposure, presentation, and pricing.

1. Exposure: This is about how effectively we market your home to the right buyers. Getting the word out to the right audience is like having a strong hand in poker. It sets you up for success—but only if you play your cards right.

2. Presentation: How your home looks, both in person and online, is critical. Think of this as "showing your hand." Staging, repairs, and high-quality marketing materials present your home in the best possible light. When buyers see your home looking its best, it builds confidence—just like revealing a winning hand in poker.

3. Pricing: Here’s where the analogy to gambling becomes most relevant. Overpricing is like placing all your chips on a risky bet in roulette, hoping the ball lands on your exact number. The odds are slim, and when you miss, you risk losing the attention of serious buyers who might have been interested at a more realistic price. Buyers typically pay the most attention when a home first hits the market.

During this window, algorithms and search tools favor listings that are correctly priced, bringing more visibility and attracting competitive offers. When a home is overpriced, it doesn’t even show up in many buyers' searches. They might never even know your home is available!

The Market’s Sweet Spot

Pricing your home at or near market value doesn’t just give you the best shot at finding the right buyer—it’s also the most reliable way to achieve the highest net proceeds. According to data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), homes priced correctly at market value typically sell within 3 weeks, while overpricing by even 10% can cause the home to linger on the market for several months, often resulting in a final sale price below the original market value.

Underpricing risks leaving money on the table, but the dangers of overpricing can be even more significant. A home that lingers on the market too long often ends up selling for *5-10% less* than it would have if it had been priced correctly from the start.

Why It’s So Hard to See the Risk

One of the biggest challenges is that the potential loss isn’t immediately felt—it’s all hypothetical. Unlike spending cash from your account, the money you might be losing by overpricing isn’t something you already have, making it difficult to picture the downside. The idea that you could end up with less, in the long run, can feel too abstract because the money was never tangibly yours, to begin with.

Another reason is that many sellers naturally believe their home is worth more than what the market indicates. It’s easy to get emotionally attached and see value in ways a buyer doesn’t—like memories, unique features, or renovations that may not add significant market value. When an agent comes in with a higher price, it validates this belief, making it tempting to take that gamble, even if the odds aren’t in your favor.

Beware of Overly Optimistic Agents

When preparing to sell your home, you might consult with multiple real estate agents. Ideally, each agent should arrive at a similar market value for your property if they’re using accurate, up-to-date data and considering the same comparables. But what if one agent quotes you a price that’s significantly higher than the others? Unfortunately, some agents use inflated listing prices as a tactic to win your business. They may hope that once your home fails to sell at the higher price, you’ll agree to lower it. This strategy might fill up their pipeline, but it doesn’t serve your best interests.

When an agent quotes an unusually high price, consider these possibilities:

- Lack of Experience: The agent may not have a solid grasp of the market, leading them to overestimate your home’s value.

- Business Motivations: The agent could be inflating the price just to secure your listing, knowing they can push you to lower it later.

- Limited Listings: An agent desperate for business may offer unrealistic prices, hoping to attract sellers in any way possible.

The truth is, pricing your home correctly from the start is one of the best strategies for maximizing your sale proceeds. An experienced agent prioritizes your financial outcome over their immediate gain.

So if an agent’s suggested price seems too good to be true, it probably is. While it’s tempting to "shoot for the stars" with a high listing price, it’s a gamble that rarely pays off. Setting the right price from day one is like playing your best hand—it puts you in the strongest position to achieve your goals.